World Cup 2010: Bet Of The Day: Slovenia - England

Match Odds: Slovenia 7.50, Draw 4.40, England 1.45

Kick-off: Wednesday 23 June, 15:00 BST
Nelson Mandela Bay Stadium, Port Elizabeth, South Africa

After all the build-up, hype, column inches and copious amounts of flags, here we are. The mighty England need to beat the even mightier Slovenia to sneak into the last 16. We say mighty in jest of course for England but the term is justified for Slovenia as, face it, they've been better than the wretched Three Lions so far.

Slovenia stand on the verge of the knockout phase in only their second ever World Cup. They laboured to a 1-0 win over Algeria and then hung on for dear life against the USA to draw 2-2 after racing into a two-goal lead. A point would be enough to take them through so they will set out to frustrate the life out of England so brace yourself for a long 90 minutes.

England have been one of the major disappointments of the tournament so far. Algeria made Fabio Capello's team of so-called stars look decidedly average and there has been plenty of drama within the camp since. While not quite on the French scale of things there is certainly some tension evident which transferred itself to the pitch against Algeria. Just because England must win the game does not mean that they will.


Slovenia Tips
In both of their opening games Slovenia have kept their opponents out in the opening 45 minutes. England are likely to be nervous, so zero goals in the first half has legs at 2.60. Today's underdogs were defensively sound in qualification, conceding just four goals in 10 games, with three of those coming the second half. Valter Birsa, who netted the screamer against America, is an enticing 17.0 to score at any time and 8.0 to score first.

England Tips
Considering how poor England have been, their outright odds are too short at 1.45. Slovenia ran out of puff in the second half last time out, so a better bet is England to win the second 45 minutes at 1.73. If you fancy them to win the first the odds stretch to 1.90. Wayne Rooney doesn't look fit so a better bet is on Joe Cole to score at any time at 4.0. Cole saved Capello's bacon in his opening competitive game in charge and if he's given a chance today, as we expect him to be, he has the touch of class capable of grabbing a goal.

Betting Verdict
Having backed England last time and been made to look foolish, I won't be so daft again. Over 10.5 corners at 1.81 looks safe money as the Three Lions forced 10 alone against Algeria and a further seven against the USA. Over 2.5 goals at 1.91 has some worth as the last time these sides met in September it finished 2-1 to England. The final group games have tended to be more open as the exit door looms.

Outside Bet
Drawn match at 4.40. Very inviting odds, and after seeing England struggle against Algeria, a dogged Slovenia will make them sweat for the entire match. A small stake purely for the fact that England are unlikely to be so bad again.

Local Insight
Alex Young, Goal.com UK
"England were poor against the USA, and were even worse against Algeria in arguably their worst performance in years, so it could go one of two ways; Either they’ve reached rock bottom and the only way is up, or they will keep digging. It's tempting to suggest they will keep digging, especially against the best team in Group C so far, but with the memory of similar situations in Mexico '86 and Italia '90 the hope must be that England, one way or another, will find a way through."

Prediction: England 2-1 Slovenia

Odds on 2-1 England win: 8.0

Match Odds: Slovenia 7.50, Draw 4.40, England 1.45