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Bet of the Day: Germany - England
Kick-Off: Sunday, June 27, 15:00 BST.
Free State Stadium, Mangaung/Bloemfontein.
Matches like Sunday afternoon's is the reason the World Cup was invented. The mere mention of both Germany and England evokes memories of controversial goals, late comebacks and the dreaded penalty shoot-out. Yes, we did manage to go a full sentence before mentioning spot-kicks.
Let's take a look at the betting options for the clash.
England trudged their way through the group eventually finishing second with five points. A goalkeeping howler prevented the Three Lions taking maximum points over the United States and they were simply dreadful against Algeria labouring to a point.
Things got back on track with a 1-0 win over Slovenia which saw a vast improvement in performance. Winning their last match has given England a much needed confidence boost, but let's not get carried away as Slovenia are an average side.
Germany lit up the early part of the group stage thumping Australia 4-0, which was assisted by their knowledge of the Jabulani ball. The controversial football was introduced into the Bundesliga earlier in the season so German players could get acquainted with it. A 1-0 loss to Serbia followed where the Nationalmannschaft played with 10 men for 50 minutes and (frame now) missed a penalty. Ghana were beaten 1-0 in a match where the European side rarely looked troubled.
"It would be a terrible mistake to underestimate them [England] just because they had a few problems in their group. They may well raise their game for the knockout matches. We have no need to be in awe, and we certainly have no reason to fear them. We respect them of course, but we're not afraid," Lukas Podolski told FIFA.com.
England Tips
Considering their lousy record against Sunday's opponents you may be surprised to find that England are slight favourites at 2.65. Don't be. This is mainly fuelled by patriotic fans backing their team and bookies are savvy to this. In reality, Germany are the favourites.
Jermain Defoe will be given another opportunity after bagging the winner against Slovenia. The Tottenham Hotspur striker is not one of the world's top forwards but a confident, happy Defoe could cause Germany problems. He is an excellent 3.0 to score at anytime and 8.0 to score first as he did last time out.
Wayne Rooney does not look fit, or sharp, for that matter so odds of 2.37 to score at anytime look too short from this angle. His last goal came against German opposition when he scored against Bayern Munich. Wazza is 6.0 to score first.
A better bet is Steven Gerrard, who scored a long ranger in England's 5-1 thumping back in 2001, who is 4.0 to score at anytime and 9.0 to score first. The Liverpool skipper is captaining his country for the first time in the knockout stages and he has a tendency to roam, making shooting opportunities very likely. He's already scored in the tournament...
Germany Tips
At 2.85 Germany are superb value to win in 90 minutes. They have the hex over England in the World Cup eliminating them in 1970 and 1990.
Miroslav Klose returns for Germany after serving his suspension. Klose performs much better for his country than his club and coach Joachim Low is an enthusiastic supporter. With 11 goals already in his World Cup career, Klose is generously priced at 3.0 to score during the 90 minutes and 7.0 to score first.
Mesut Oezil has been identified by many as the key player for the Germans. Having scored arguably the goal of the tournament, Oezil is a very worthwhile 4.50 to score at anytime.
Germany have been very strong in the second-half of games recently, scoring ten goals after the break in their last six matches. In five of those games they won the second-half, so there is a lot of merit in Germany doing the same on Sunday afternoon and winning the second-half at stunning value of 3.03.
Extra Time
Don Fabio will want to avoid penalties like the plague just like Marcello Lippi did with Italy against Germany in the semi-finals four years ago.
* England to win in extra time - 12.0
* Germany to win in extra time - 12.0
Penalties
We had to mention it sometime and it certainly makes for dismal reading for the Three Lions. Italia '90 and Euro '96 eliminations were from the spot, and that was just against the Germans. France '98, Portugal '04 and Germany '06 were the scenes for more penalty heartbreak.
Jermain Defoe has missed six of his last 11 penalties, while Frank Lampard aimed his most recent one wide in the FA Cup Final. Germany have thrown England a bone thanks to Lukas Podolski's miss against Serbia - his nation's first in a World Cup since 1982 - or to put it another way, before Jermain Defoe was even born.
* England to win on penalties - 10.0
* Germany to win on penalties - 9.50
Betting Verdict
A draw after 90 minutes is the most sensible bet as the last four times these teams have clashed in a knockout tournament they have been level pegging making extra-time a necessity. At much better than even money this is most definitely worth shelling out a little Sterling or Euro on.
* Draw after 90 minutes - 3.05
In all the knockout games so far both teams have scored and Sunday should be no different. England have a makeshift defence, while as Serbia have demonstrated, Germany can be got at. You can't afford to be conservative with elimination staring you in the face.
* Both teams to score - 2.0
Local Insight
Dennis Weinacht, Goal.com Germany
"It will be a very exciting game which I suspect will have plenty of goals. In the end Germany will go through with some luck because Miroslav Klose will return to great form and score twice.
"Wayne Rooney will do the same for England. Only in the last minutes of the match will the game be decided. Maybe the teams have to play more then 90 minutes but there won't be a penalty shoot-out.
"It will also be important for Germany that the defence around Arne Friedrich and Per Mertesacker finally plays very well. We are relying on them."
Prediction: Germany 3-2 England
Odds on 3-2 Germany win: 34.0
Sulmaan Ahmad, Goal.com UK Chief Editor
"It may not be the prediction expected, but my honest instinct is that the German team looks to have goals from more areas, and while their defence hasn't been as strong as it used to be, it has remained fairly solid throughout the tournament so far.
"Plus, the battle of Oezil vs Barry is not one I imagine ending in England's favour. It may go to extra-time, but Germany are the more likely to produce a winner. Penalties would also be likely to end in their favour. That being said, this, along with Spain vs Portugal, is the closest round of 16 tie there is."
Prediction: Germany 2-1 England
Odds on 2-1 Germany win: 11.0
Match Odds: Germany 2.85, Draw 3.05, England 2.65
(source: goal.com)
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