Group D Betting Preview

Group D Outright Odds
Germany - 12.0
Australia - 151.0
Serbia - 67.0
Ghana - 81.0

Tournament specialists Germany are the favourites to top this tricky group where there is plenty of potential for the Nationalmannschaft to come unstuck. While it would be foolish to write off the Germans they are not the same force as in 2006 and the absence of captain Michael Ballack is a major blow. Expect six very hard fought games.

Australia remain seething after their controversial exit to Italy four years ago. Coach Pim Verbeek has set a target of reaching the last 16 but Socceroos fans are frustrated at his tendency to play 4-5-1 against stronger opponents. Most of the heroes of 2006 will feature with the motivation of facing England in the second round their main incentive.

Germany will cope without Ballack, who was one of their more experienced players, and have a squad full of young talent. Joachim Low has been loyal to stalwarts Miroslav Klose and Lukas Podolski, who have both had dismal domestic seasons, but also has Bundesliga hotshot Stefan Kiessling to call upon. The Bayer Leverkusen star scored goals for fun last season and could be one of the stars of the World Cup if given a chance.

Ghana, just like Germany, have lost their own Chelsea star in Michael Essien. The Black Stars surprised many by reaching the African Cup of Nations final featuring several players from their World Under-20 winning team from last year. Coach Milovan Rajevac will have done his homework on his home country Serbia, but this team is likely to lack the savvy and experience to make it out of the group.



Serbia are dark horses to make a big impression in the World Cup. They finished ahead of France in the qualifying process and have some outstanding players like Nemanja Vidic, Milos Krasic and Dejan Stankovic, plus a super manager in Raddy Antic who has coached Real Madrid and Barcelona and knows how to get the best out of his gifted squad.

Betting Potential
While the bookies are naturally backing Germany to progress there is some value if you search around like a Serbia/Germany dual forecast to progress first and second at 6.50. Serbia to beat Ghana at 2.05 is super value as is over 2, 2.5 goals in the same game at 2.07. Expect goals in that opening match. Serbia are a tasty 4.51 to beat Germany with the draw an intriguing 3.43. Lots of value in other words.

To Qualify
Germany 1.17
Serbia 1.75
Ghana 2.40
Australia 3.50

Not to qualify
Australia 1.28
Ghana 1.67
Serbia 1.75
Germany 4.32

Best Bet
Over 2, 2.5 goals in Australia Ghana match at 2.08. Australia are a generous 3.10 to beat Ghana who are 2.29 with the draw at 3.12. Given that we expect both teams to lose their opener against Germany and Serbia respectively this will be a high tempo game with both teams needing to win to give themselves any chance of progressing. Picking a winner is tough but I expect goals and at better than evens odds snap this one up.

Outside Bet
Serbia to win the group at 4.14. This is their first World Cup as an independent nation and just like Croatia in 1998 hearing their own national anthem should provide even more incentive for them to perform. More importantly they have the players to cause any team problems and like the Croats 12 years ago will play with a fearlessness against the fancied Germans.